6 Warning Signs SHTF is Coming

Economic collapse is one of the most common catalysts for SHTF scenarios. When the economy begins to falter, it can lead to widespread unemployment, food shortages, and civil unrest.

SHTF & SECURITY

9/6/20246 min read

a family with gas masks sitting around a disaster

6 Warning Signs That SHTF is Coming

There’s a peculiar tension in the air when something big is about to go sideways. As someone who has worked with countless clients over the years—families, businesses, and communities—preparing for scenarios most would rather not think about, I’ve learned to recognize that uneasy feeling. It’s not just instinct, or that gut feeling, though that plays a role; it’s pattern recognition. I've seen the same signs before, and the consequences of ignoring them are etched into the stories of those who were caught unprepared. Disasters don’t announce themselves with fanfare. They creep in, stealthy and ruthless, and recognizing the warning signs is an art as much as a science.

One of the first indicators of an imminent SHTF situation is the breakdown of everyday systems. You might notice it when supply chains falter—the shelves at your local grocery store staying emptier longer than they should. It could start with seemingly minor shortages: a specific brand of baby formula, certain medications, or even construction materials. When the delays stretch into weeks or months and the replacements never come, it’s time to take note. This isn’t just a supply hiccup; it’s a crack in the infrastructure that keeps everything running smoothly. Add to that rising prices—not your typical inflation, but spikes that hit suddenly and disproportionately, the kind that ripple through an entire economy and change the way people behave. Panic-buying and hoarding are more than reactions; they’re symptoms of a deeper illness in the system.

Then there are the signs that come from people themselves. Human behavior is a powerful barometer. Watch how others act—especially those who are usually calm and composed. When professionals in critical industries—healthcare, emergency services, logistics—start voicing concerns or walking off the job, it’s a red flag. People who see the writing on the wall early are often those closest to the machinery that keeps the wheels turning. Their frustration, fear, or outright resignation should never be dismissed as just noise. It’s a signal.

Politics and governance offer their own clues. When decision-making grinds to a halt, or worse, becomes erratic and unpredictable, you know the foundations are starting to shake. Leaders might focus on finger-pointing rather than solutions, while critical resources and funds are misallocated or outright disappear. Social unrest often follows, escalating from isolated protests to widespread chaos. The energy of a crowd can be deceptive; a peaceful gathering can turn into a mob in minutes when tensions are high. You don’t need to wait for the military to roll in to know that stability is hanging by a thread. And you need to have a plan to escape from violent mobs.

Technology—a double-edged sword—has its own role in signaling trouble. Widespread communication outages, cybersecurity breaches, or even just a noticeable uptick in disinformation campaigns can indicate that someone, somewhere, is testing vulnerabilities. When systems designed to protect, connect, or sustain us become unreliable, it’s not just inconvenient; it’s a warning that something bigger may be on the way.

Lastly, keep an eye on nature. The environment has a way of reminding us how little control we truly have. Sudden shifts in weather patterns or an increase in natural disasters are often precursors to larger crises. Combine that with strained emergency services and inadequate preparation, and you have a recipe for disaster. Nature is relentless, and its timing is rarely convenient.

Identifying when SHTF is about to happen isn’t a matter of paranoia; it’s about reading the signs that are often hiding in plain sight. Patterns repeat, and history whispers its warnings to those willing to listen. If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know that the signs aren’t subtle—not when you know where to look.

1. Economic Instability

Economic collapse is one of the most common catalysts for SHTF scenarios. When the economy begins to falter, it can lead to widespread unemployment, food shortages, and civil unrest.

Signs to Watch:

Hyperinflation or rapid price increases: If the cost of everyday items like food, fuel, or basic supplies begins to skyrocket, it may indicate a weakening currency or financial crisis.
Mass layoffs or corporate bankruptcies: A significant spike in layoffs across various industries or multiple large companies going bankrupt could signal a broader economic downturn.
Stock market crashes or banking instability: A sharp drop in the stock market, bank runs, or government intervention to stabilize financial systems are strong indicators of economic trouble.
Increased government borrowing or money printing: When governments increase borrowing or print excessive amounts of money, it can lead to inflation and weaken the economy over time.

What to Do: Start stockpiling essential goods before prices rise further, diversify your income, and consider converting cash into hard assets like precious metals. Learn to budget for inflation. Have a plan to save, but not just any traditional plan, it needs to be a financial prepping plan.

2. Widespread Civil Unrest

Civil unrest can erupt due to political, economic, or social grievances, and is often a precursor to more severe disruptions. Protests, riots, and violence in the streets can spread quickly, overwhelming local authorities and leading to breakdowns in law and order.

Signs to Watch:

Mass protests or riots in major cities: Frequent demonstrations that escalate into violence or rioting are a sign of growing instability.
Increased police or military presence: When governments deploy additional forces to contain unrest, it’s an indication that they’re losing control.
Racial, religious, or political tensions reaching boiling points: Deepening divisions between groups can ignite conflict, especially when coupled with other societal stresses.
Looting or property destruction: If looting becomes widespread, it suggests that local authorities may not be able to maintain order, and resources will become scarce.

What to Do: Avoid high-conflict areas, fortify your home, and have a plan for self-defense if necessary. Ensure you have enough supplies to wait out unrest if it escalates into a larger conflict.

3. Supply Chain Disruptions

Modern societies rely heavily on global supply chains to deliver food, goods, and medicine. When those supply chains are interrupted, it can quickly lead to shortages of essential items, causing panic and escalating the crisis.

Signs to Watch:

Empty store shelves or rationing: If grocery stores and retailers begin to struggle to keep stock, or impose purchase limits on goods, it’s a sign that the supply chain is under strain.
Delivery delays or shortages of key products: Whether it's food, fuel, medical supplies, or consumer goods, widespread delays indicate deeper logistical problems.
Fewer imports or exports from key trading partners: When major countries like China or the U.S. reduce exports or experience disruptions in manufacturing, it will have a global ripple effect.

What to Do: Stock up on long-term food storage, water, and medical supplies. Have a backup plan for essentials like water filtration, energy, and transportation in case the situation worsens.

4. Government Overreach or Breakdown

In the lead-up to an SHTF event, governments may either become more authoritarian or begin to lose control entirely. Both situations can cause severe disruptions in daily life, as personal freedoms are restricted or essential services start to fail.

Signs to Watch:

Martial law or curfews: If local or national governments impose martial law or curfews, it’s a sign that civil unrest or instability has reached a dangerous level.
Suspension of civil liberties: When governments start curbing free speech, banning protests, or restricting movement, it could signal that a serious crisis is unfolding.
Breakdown of public services: If critical infrastructure like hospitals, emergency services, or utilities fail or are stretched too thin to function properly, society could be on the verge of collapse.

What to Do: Prepare for the loss of essential services by having your own backup plans for electricity, food, water, and healthcare. Learn basic survival skills and know your rights to avoid becoming a target.

5. Natural Disasters or Environmental Catastrophes

While natural disasters can occur suddenly, there are often warning signs that something larger is on the horizon, such as extreme weather patterns or environmental degradation. Climate-related events like hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, or wildfires can trigger SHTF scenarios by devastating local infrastructure and cutting off access to resources.

Signs to Watch:

Unusual weather patterns or extreme climate events: Prolonged droughts, intense storms, or erratic weather could signal worsening environmental conditions that could lead to food shortages or displacement.
Increased frequency of earthquakes, tsunamis, or volcanic activity: When seismic or volcanic activity increases, it can indicate that a large-scale natural disaster is imminent.
Depleted natural resources: If water shortages or food production issues arise it can lead to competition for resources and potentially large-scale migration.

What to Do: Have a go-bag ready with essential supplies for quick evacuation. Know your local geography and risk areas (flood zones, fault lines, etc.), and prepare for temporary displacement by stocking food, water, and supplies.

6. Global Conflicts and Geopolitical Tensions

Global tensions can have ripple effects that destabilize economies, fuel conflict, or disrupt trade. War or geopolitical strife in key regions can trigger energy crises, refugee flows, and even lead to nuclear or cyber warfare.

Signs to Watch:

Rising tensions between superpowers: Conflicts between major nations (e.g., U.S., China) or regional powers can have global consequences, including trade disruptions or military escalations.
Increased military activity or deployment: A significant increase in military deployments, exercises, or the buildup of troops near borders can indicate that a conflict is on the horizon.
Cyberattacks on infrastructure: Cyberattacks on energy grids, financial institutions, or critical infrastructure can disrupt society without warning, leading to a cascading failure of essential systems.

What to Do: Monitor global news carefully and be prepared for scenarios like power outages or economic fallout. Have alternative communication methods (e.g., ham radios) in place, and be ready for cyber disruptions to banks or utilities.